Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals1
- Joel EdmundsonAssists2
- Anze KopitarPoints2
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals3
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:48Tomas Hertl Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (39), Jack Eichel (57)6–5
- P311:33Brandon Saad Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: none6–4
- P310:57Adrian Kempe Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (35), Kevin Fiala (18)6–3
- P38:28Tomas Hertl Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (38), Jack Eichel (56)5–3
- P34:02Trevor Moore Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (28), Warren Foegele (17)5–2
- P218:51Warren Foegele Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (27), Vladislav Gavrikov (19)4–2
- P29:47Tomas Hertl Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Pavel Dorofeyev (15)3–2
- P25:00Nicolas Roy Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Brayden McNabb (11), Reilly Smith (20)3–1
- P21:56Quinton Byfield Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Alex Laferriere (17)3–0
- P118:29Brandt Clarke Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (26), Joel Edmundson (11)2–0
- P111:22Anze Kopitar Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (10), Brandt Clarke (22)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:22Anze Kopitar Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Joel Edmundson (10), Brandt Clarke (22)LA 1 – 0 VGK · LA 38% → 54% +16LA 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:29Brandt Clarke Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Adrian Kempe (26), Joel Edmundson (11)LA 2 – 0 VGK · LA 56% → 72% +16LA 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P21:56Quinton Byfield Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Kevin Fiala (17), Alex Laferriere (17)LA 3 – 0 VGK · LA 74% → 86% +13LA 74% → 86%+13 pts
- P29:47Tomas Hertl Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (7), Pavel Dorofeyev (15)LA 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 22% → 39% +18VGK 22% → 39%+18 pts
- P218:51Warren Foegele Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (27), Vladislav Gavrikov (19)LA 4 – 2 VGK · LA 66% → 85% +19LA 66% → 85%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML LA +165 / VGK -195
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- VGK: Elo 64.1%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -175
- LA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.4 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +8 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +101 Elo | VGK 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 53.7%4th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3212–22 | Road vs home | 24–94th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–34 | 36–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 26–24 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36 | 29–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.