Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals1
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Joel KivirantaPoints1
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists1
- Mats ZuccarelloPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Matt Boldy Goal Backhand0–2
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P314:20Joel Kiviranta Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Ross Colton (8), Samuel Girard (18)1–1
- P211:01Mats Zuccarello Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (32), Matt Boldy (34)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:01Mats Zuccarello Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (32), Matt Boldy (34)COL 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 44% → 64% +21MIN 44% → 64%+21 pts
- P314:20Joel Kiviranta Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Ross Colton (8), Samuel Girard (18)COL 1 – 1 MIN · COL 13% → 53% +40COL 13% → 53%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 59%
- ML COL -155 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- COL: Elo 48.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- COL -143
- MIN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +14 Elo | MIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 5th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 14–1523rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–36 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders | 33–32 | 30–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–1 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.