New York Rangers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists2
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:51Braden Schneider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (41), J.T. Miller (36)3–2
- P38:42Frederick Gaudreau Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (12), Jared Spurgeon (19)2–2
- P36:38Jonny Brodzinski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zac Jones (10), Matt Rempe (3)2–1
- P33:55Marcus Johansson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (13), Jared Spurgeon (18)1–1
- P26:45Vincent Trocheck Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (18), K'Andre Miller (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:45Vincent Trocheck Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (18), K'Andre Miller (13)NYR 1 – 0 MIN · NYR 52% → 70% +19NYR 52% → 70%+19 pts
- P33:55Marcus Johansson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (13), Jared Spurgeon (18)NYR 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 23% → 49% +26MIN 23% → 49%+26 pts
- P36:38Jonny Brodzinski Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zac Jones (10), Matt Rempe (3)NYR 2 – 1 MIN · NYR 51% → 79% +28NYR 51% → 79%+28 pts
- P38:42Frederick Gaudreau Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (12), Jared Spurgeon (19)NYR 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 19% → 49% +30MIN 19% → 49%+30 pts
- OT1:51Braden Schneider Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Artemi Panarin (41), J.T. Miller (36)NYR 3 – 2 MIN · NYR 50% → 95% +44NYR 50% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 52%
- ML NYR -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- NYR: Elo 45.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.8 – 2.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.1%28th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–38 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–29 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.