New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Nick JensenAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Brady Tkachuk Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (45)3–4
- P317:08Michael Amadio Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (4)3–3
- P310:16Ridly Greig Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (21), Thomas Chabot (26)3–2
- P37:08Artemi Panarin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (6), K'Andre Miller (12)3–1
- P24:06Brady Tkachuk Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: Nick Jensen (16)2–1
- P23:55Mika Zibanejad Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (34), Will Cuylle (17)2–0
- P18:37Carson Soucy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Vincent Trocheck (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Carson Soucy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (39), Vincent Trocheck (23)NYR 1 – 0 OTT · NYR 47% → 63% +16NYR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P37:08Artemi Panarin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Jonny Brodzinski (6), K'Andre Miller (12)NYR 3 – 1 OTT · NYR 77% → 94% +16NYR 77% → 94%+16 pts
- P310:16Ridly Greig Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (21), Thomas Chabot (26)NYR 3 – 2 OTT · OTT 4% → 19% +15OTT 4% → 19%+15 pts
- P317:08Michael Amadio Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (4)NYR 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 5% → 51% +46OTT 5% → 51%+46 pts
- OT0:33Brady Tkachuk Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (45)NYR 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 51% → 91% +40OTT 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 53%
- ML NYR +105 / OTT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- OTT: Elo 50.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +4 Elo | OTT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 51.2%9th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–15 | Road vs home | 17–1111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–37 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 27–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–1 OTT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.