Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals3
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists2
- Adam FantilliPoints3
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Alexis LafreniereAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:51Adam Fantilli Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (37), Damon Severson (18)7–3
- P310:17Kent Johnson Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Mathieu Olivier (10), Boone Jenner (8)6–3
- P218:47Dante Fabbro Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (9), James van Riemsdyk (16)5–3
- P217:03Mathieu Olivier Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (48), Dante Fabbro (11)4–3
- P27:36Chris Kreider Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33)3–3
- P26:54Braden Schneider Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (25), Mika Zibanejad (32)3–2
- P23:33Adam Fantilli Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (22)3–1
- P23:07Adam Fantilli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (21)2–1
- P119:31Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (22), Vincent Trocheck (24)1–1
- P15:56Justin Danforth Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (47)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:31Artemi Panarin Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (22), Vincent Trocheck (24)CBJ 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 37% → 54% +17NYR 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P23:07Adam Fantilli Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (21)CBJ 2 – 1 NYR · CBJ 46% → 64% +18CBJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P27:36Chris Kreider Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (33)CBJ 3 – 3 NYR · NYR 34% → 54% +19NYR 34% → 54%+19 pts
- P217:03Mathieu Olivier Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Zach Werenski (48), Dante Fabbro (11)CBJ 4 – 3 NYR · CBJ 47% → 69% +23CBJ 47% → 69%+23 pts
- P218:47Dante Fabbro Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Kuraly (9), James van Riemsdyk (16)CBJ 5 – 3 NYR · CBJ 70% → 87% +17CBJ 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 55%
- ML CBJ +115 / NYR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -124
- CBJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.1 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +53 Elo | NYR 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3249.0% | Shot share | 48.9%23rd of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–22 | Road vs home | 16–1617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–24 | 26–37 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 33–19 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–26 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–4 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.