Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:53Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P39:44Victor Hedman Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (32), Nikita Kucherov (62)2–5
- P210:49Zach Werenski Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (20), Kent Johnson (23)2–4
- P26:36Victor Hedman Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), Darren Raddysh (23)1–4
- P21:27Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (39), Brayden Point (31)1–3
- P117:20Zach Werenski Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P11:37Nikita Kucherov Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (31)0–2
- P10:30Mitchell Chaffee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (14), Darren Raddysh (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:30Mitchell Chaffee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (14), Darren Raddysh (22)CBJ 0 – 1 TB · TB 57% → 71% +14TB 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P11:37Nikita Kucherov Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (31)CBJ 0 – 2 TB · TB 71% → 82% +11TB 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P117:20Zach Werenski Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 1 – 2 TB · CBJ 15% → 28% +12CBJ 15% → 28%+12 pts
- P21:27Jake Guentzel Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Victor Hedman (39), Brayden Point (31)CBJ 1 – 3 TB · TB 73% → 85% +13TB 73% → 85%+13 pts
- P26:36Victor Hedman Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (61), Darren Raddysh (23)CBJ 1 – 4 TB · TB 87% → 95% +8TB 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML CBJ +125 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- CBJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | TB on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −23 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.57 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 3210–20 | Road vs home | 21–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–22 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 33–17 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 25–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.