Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Darren RaddyshPoints1
Panthers- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Aaron EkbladPoints1
Scoring summary
- P32:07Brayden Point Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (21), Jake Guentzel (30)1–2
- P215:16Aleksander Barkov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (10), Aaron Ekblad (28)0–2
- P29:02Aleksander Barkov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:02Aleksander Barkov Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneTB 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 74% +19FLA 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P215:16Aleksander Barkov Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (10), Aaron Ekblad (28)TB 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 75% → 90% +14FLA 75% → 90%+14 pts
- P32:07Brayden Point Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Darren Raddysh (21), Jake Guentzel (30)TB 1 – 2 FLA · TB 8% → 22% +15TB 8% → 22%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 57%
- ML TB +125 / FLA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -135
- TB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +5 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +40 Elo | FLA 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.36th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 54.2%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%11th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 18–1210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–27 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–7 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Dec 23TB 4 @ FLA 0Picked FLA 58%Miss
- Dec 22FLA 4 @ TB 2Picked FLA 51%Hit
- Apr 29TB 1 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 27FLA 3 @ TB 6PlayoffsPicked TB 54%Hit
- Apr 25FLA 5 @ TB 3PlayoffsPicked TB 54%Miss
- Apr 23TB 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Apr 21TB 2 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Mar 16TB 5 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 57%Miss