Columbus Blue Jackets at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:48Aleksander Barkov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (35), Sam Bennett (21)0–3
- P26:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (42), Sam Reinhart (34)0–2
- P15:58Sam Reinhart Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (41), Aaron Ekblad (29)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:58Sam Reinhart Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (41), Aaron Ekblad (29)CBJ 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 71% → 83% +11FLA 71% → 83%+11 pts
- P26:34Mackie Samoskevich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (42), Sam Reinhart (34)CBJ 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 82% → 92% +10FLA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P317:48Aleksander Barkov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (35), Sam Bennett (21)CBJ 0 – 3 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 72%
- ML CBJ +250 / FLA -300
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 66.5%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- FLA -263
- CBJ +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +119 Elo | FLA 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 71.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.56th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 54.2%2nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.6%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3210–21 | Road vs home | 19–129th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 38–23 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 36–25 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–4 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.