Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists2
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:04Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (21)1–3
- P315:22Mats Zuccarello Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (35), Ryan Hartman (13)1–2
- P21:51Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (20)1–1
- P14:59Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Drew Doughty (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:59Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (20), Drew Doughty (7)LA 1 – 0 MIN · LA 58% → 72% +14LA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P21:51Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (20)LA 1 – 1 MIN · MIN 27% → 44% +17MIN 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P315:22Mats Zuccarello Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (35), Ryan Hartman (13)LA 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 48% → 90% +42MIN 48% → 90%+42 pts
- P319:04Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (21)LA 1 – 3 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML LA -150 / MIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- LA: Elo 49.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 2.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +3 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.725th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 6th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 47.9%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 24th of 3213–22 | Road vs home | 15–1726th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–35 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–25 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–39 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 4–1 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.