New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Adam PelechAssists1
- Anders LeePoints1
Kings- Vladislav GavrikovGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists1
- Phillip DanaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:43Drew Doughty Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P214:00Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P29:14Phillip Danault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (16), Warren Foegele (18)1–2
- P28:37Anders Lee Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (22), Adam Pelech (17)1–1
- P115:33Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (36), Jordan Spence (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:33Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (36), Jordan Spence (18)NYI 0 – 1 LA · LA 61% → 76% +15LA 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P28:37Anders Lee Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (22), Adam Pelech (17)NYI 1 – 1 LA · NYI 23% → 41% +18NYI 23% → 41%+18 pts
- P29:14Phillip Danault Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (16), Warren Foegele (18)NYI 1 – 2 LA · LA 59% → 77% +18LA 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P214:00Quinton Byfield Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 3 LA · LA 78% → 91% +13LA 78% → 91%+13 pts
- P318:43Drew Doughty Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: noneNYI 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- LA 63%
- ML NYI +160 / LA -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LA: Elo 59.6%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LA -170
- NYI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +68 Elo | LA 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.112th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 52.3%6th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 19th of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 20–73rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 26–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.