Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Owen PowerAssists2
- Owen PowerPoints3
Bruins- Morgan GeekieGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- Morgan GeekiePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:49Alex Tuch Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (28), Jack Quinn (16)3–2
- P212:48Owen Power Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (22), Bowen Byram (26)2–2
- P115:13Morgan Geekie Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (5)1–2
- P113:00Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (14), David Pastrnak (49)1–1
- P14:19Peyton Krebs Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (15), Owen Power (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:19Peyton Krebs Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (15), Owen Power (27)BUF 1 – 0 BOS · BUF 51% → 66% +15BUF 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P113:00Pavel Zacha Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (14), David Pastrnak (49)BUF 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 33% → 49% +16BOS 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P115:13Morgan Geekie Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (5)BUF 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 49% → 66% +16BOS 49% → 66%+16 pts
- P212:48Owen Power Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (22), Bowen Byram (26)BUF 2 – 2 BOS · BUF 30% → 51% +21BUF 30% → 51%+21 pts
- OT4:49Alex Tuch Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (28), Jack Quinn (16)BUF 3 – 2 BOS · BUF 50% → >99% +50BUF 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML BUF -115 / BOS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 41.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.3 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −4 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +61 Elo | BOS 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.7%26th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%23rd of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 29th of 329–21 | Road vs home | 19–1716th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–33 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–26 | 33–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.