Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Nate SchmidtAssists2
- Nate SchmidtPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:26Sam Bennett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (36), Niko Mikkola (16)0–4
- P217:09Anton Lundell Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (12), Jesper Boqvist (11)0–3
- P29:32Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (43), Aaron Ekblad (30)0–2
- P17:20A.J. Greer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (11), Dmitry Kulikov (9)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:20A.J. Greer Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (11), Dmitry Kulikov (9)BUF 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 68% → 80% +12FLA 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P29:32Carter Verhaeghe Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (43), Aaron Ekblad (30)BUF 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 81% → 92% +11FLA 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P217:09Anton Lundell Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (12), Jesper Boqvist (11)BUF 0 – 3 FLA · FLA 93% → 98% +5FLA 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P319:26Sam Bennett Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (36), Niko Mikkola (16)BUF 0 – 4 FLA · FLA 100% → 100% +0FLA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 69%
- ML BUF +210 / FLA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 65.8%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -221
- BUF +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −30 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.76 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +113 Elo | FLA 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 54.4%2nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.7%9th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 329–19 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–31 | 32–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–4 FLA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.