Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Zach BensonAssists2
- JJ PeterkaPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nick PaulPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:40Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (12), Nikita Kucherov (64)5–6
- P218:46Jake Guentzel Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (40), Darren Raddysh (24)5–5
- P217:43Jake Guentzel Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (33), Nick Paul (16)5–4
- P212:40JJ Peterka Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P29:35Tage Thompson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (40), JJ Peterka (32)4–3
- P20:58Jake Guentzel Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (14), Nikita Kucherov (63)3–3
- P117:09Peyton Krebs Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (19), Zach Benson (12)3–2
- P18:20Alex Tuch Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P15:53Darren Raddysh Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (4)1–2
- P15:17Rasmus Dahlin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (18), Zach Benson (11)1–1
- P15:01Nick Paul Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Ryan McDonagh (18), Brandon Hagel (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:35Tage Thompson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (40), JJ Peterka (32)BUF 4 – 3 TB · BUF 37% → 57% +20BUF 37% → 57%+20 pts
- P212:40JJ Peterka Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 5 – 3 TB · BUF 59% → 78% +19BUF 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P217:43Jake Guentzel Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Brayden Point (33), Nick Paul (16)BUF 5 – 4 TB · TB 18% → 38% +20TB 18% → 38%+20 pts
- P218:46Jake Guentzel Goal (32) Slap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (40), Darren Raddysh (24)BUF 5 – 5 TB · TB 37% → 61% +24TB 37% → 61%+24 pts
- P31:40Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (12), Nikita Kucherov (64)BUF 5 – 6 TB · TB 60% → 82% +22TB 60% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML BUF +200 / TB -240
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 69.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -212
- BUF +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +11 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +140 Elo | TB 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 27th of 329–18 | Road vs home | 22–96th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–31 | 34–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 36–24 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 3–1 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.