Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Marat KhusnutdinovGoals1
- Parker WotherspoonAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Drake BathersonAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:44Claude Giroux Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: none3–6
- P213:55Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (23), Jakub Lauko (4)3–5
- P211:01Drake Batherson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (22), Thomas Chabot (27)2–5
- P26:59David Pastrnak Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: John Beecher (8)2–4
- P116:43Ridly Greig Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (12)1–4
- P116:21Drake Batherson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (25), Tim Stützle (47)1–3
- P110:57Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vinni Lettieri (1), Parker Wotherspoon (4)1–2
- P19:09Tyler Kleven Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1), Drake Batherson (35)0–2
- P13:44Shane Pinto Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (12), Michael Amadio (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:44Shane Pinto Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (12), Michael Amadio (12)BOS 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 64% → 77% +13OTT 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P19:09Tyler Kleven Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Nikolas Matinpalo (1), Drake Batherson (35)BOS 0 – 2 OTT · OTT 77% → 87% +10OTT 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P110:57Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vinni Lettieri (1), Parker Wotherspoon (4)BOS 1 – 2 OTT · BOS 13% → 23% +10BOS 13% → 23%+10 pts
- P116:21Drake Batherson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (25), Tim Stützle (47)BOS 1 – 3 OTT · OTT 77% → 88% +11OTT 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P116:43Ridly Greig Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Pinto (12)BOS 1 – 4 OTT · OTT 88% → 95% +7OTT 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 64%
- ML BOS +170 / OTT -200
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- OTT -180
- BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.3 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +42 Elo | OTT 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 51.0%9th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–20 | Road vs home | 19–1110th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–34 | 27–37 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 10–25 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 29–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.