Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints2
Flyers- Rodrigo AbolsGoals1
- Jakob PelletierAssists1
- Rodrigo AbolsPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:25Shane Pinto Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (11), Jake Sanderson (39)5–2
- P310:59Dylan Cozens Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P215:01Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (7), Jake Sanderson (38)3–2
- P28:45Rodrigo Abols Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (10), Jakob Pelletier (9)2–2
- P24:14Tyler Kleven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (5), Drake Batherson (34)2–1
- P23:05Jamie Drysdale Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (43), Olle Lycksell (1)1–1
- P10:24Brady Tkachuk Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (29), Tim Stützle (46)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:24Brady Tkachuk Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (29), Tim Stützle (46)OTT 1 – 0 PHI · OTT 52% → 66% +14OTT 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P23:05Jamie Drysdale Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (43), Olle Lycksell (1)OTT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 31% → 48% +18PHI 31% → 48%+18 pts
- P24:14Tyler Kleven Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (5), Drake Batherson (34)OTT 2 – 1 PHI · OTT 52% → 70% +18OTT 52% → 70%+18 pts
- P28:45Rodrigo Abols Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam York (10), Jakob Pelletier (9)OTT 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 29% → 48% +19PHI 29% → 48%+19 pts
- P215:01Michael Amadio Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (7), Jake Sanderson (38)OTT 3 – 2 PHI · OTT 51% → 73% +21OTT 51% → 73%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 52%
- ML OTT -120 / PHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- OTT: Elo 46.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OTT -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −8 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.4%32nd of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–19 | Road vs home | 15–1826th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–37 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–25 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 24–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–35 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.