Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings
Senators- David PerronGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- David PerronPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:56Dylan Cozens Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (37), Brady Tkachuk (24)1–2
- P32:58Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (44)1–1
- P27:39David Perron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (28)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:39David Perron Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (28)DET 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 58% → 76% +18OTT 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P32:58Dylan Larkin Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (44)DET 1 – 1 OTT · DET 20% → 44% +24DET 20% → 44%+24 pts
- P314:56Dylan Cozens Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (37), Brady Tkachuk (24)DET 1 – 2 OTT · OTT 53% → 91% +38OTT 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 61%
- ML DET +150 / OTT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 56.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- OTT -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +46 Elo | OTT 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 27th of 3248.3% | Shot share | 51.3%9th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–15 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–26 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 28–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 OTT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.