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Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports, NESN

Away

Panthers

40-22-3

2–3

at

Home

Bruins

30-28-8

FLA 65%BOS 35%

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TD Garden · ESPN+, Scripps Sports, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored FLA favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3BOS50%FLA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P316:43Pavel Zacha Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (48), Nikita Zadorov (13)2–3
  • P313:51Mason Lohrei Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
  • P38:56David Pastrnak Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (25), Elias Lindholm (22)2–1
  • P34:49Mackie Samoskevich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (21)2–0
  • P14:27Dmitry Kulikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (22)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:27Dmitry Kulikov Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (22)FLA 1 – 0 BOS · FLA 65% → 77% +13
  2. P34:49Mackie Samoskevich Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (21)FLA 2 – 0 BOS · FLA 82% → 95% +13
  3. P38:56David Pastrnak Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (25), Elias Lindholm (22)FLA 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 3% → 15% +12
  4. P313:51Mason Lohrei Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneFLA 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 10% → 45% +35
  5. P316:43Pavel Zacha Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (48), Nikita Zadorov (13)FLA 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 46% → 93% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 65%

SolidMiss
FLA 65%BOS 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
FLA 65%
ML FLA -210 / BOS +175
Pre-line forecast
FLA 62%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 57%
Ratings vs. market
−7.7 pts
FLA: Elo 57.4%, market 65.1%
Fair odds
FLA -186
BOS +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
FLA 3.2 – 2.3 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorFLABOSWhy
Team rating15731494Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+10+2FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +52 EloFLA 57.4%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 63.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 62.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Florida Panthers and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
FLAStatBOS
8th of 323.3Goals scored2.728th of 32
6th of 322.7Goals allowed3.122nd of 32
5th of 32+0.6Margin−0.427th of 32
2nd of 3254.5%Shot share49.2%19th of 32
8th of 3290.8%Save percentage89.7%21st of 32
1st of 328–2Last 102–829th of 32
5th of 3217–12Road vs home18–1616th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PanthersBruins
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonFLABOS
Puck line33–3131–34
Last 105–58–2
Favorite25–2810–21
Underdog8–321–13
Overs–unders31–3331–34
Overs–unders, last 103–73–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

FLA 6–7 BOS in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.