Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Yanni GourdeAssists2
- Nick PaulPoints2
Bruins- Marat KhusnutdinovGoals1
- Andrew PeekeAssists1
- Marat KhusnutdinovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:15Anthony Cirelli Goal (22) Deflected, assists: Victor Hedman (41)6–2
- P316:31Brandon Hagel Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (65), Erik Cernak (16)5–2
- P30:23Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (4), Elias Lindholm (24)4–2
- P217:08Darren Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (16), Nick Paul (17)4–1
- P27:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (20), Yanni Gourde (15)3–1
- P22:13Nick Paul Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (15), Gage Goncalves (8)2–1
- P115:58Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (15), Jakub Lauko (5)1–1
- P12:22Victor Hedman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Darren Raddysh (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:22Victor Hedman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Yanni Gourde (14), Darren Raddysh (26)TB 1 – 0 BOS · TB 62% → 75% +13TB 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P115:58Elias Lindholm Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (15), Jakub Lauko (5)TB 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 24% → 39% +15BOS 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P22:13Nick Paul Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (15), Gage Goncalves (8)TB 2 – 1 BOS · TB 60% → 76% +16TB 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P27:22Anthony Cirelli Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Ryan McDonagh (20), Yanni Gourde (15)TB 3 – 1 BOS · TB 77% → 89% +12TB 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P217:08Darren Raddysh Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Lilleberg (16), Nick Paul (17)TB 4 – 1 BOS · TB 92% → 98% +6TB 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML TB -185 / BOS +155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- TB: Elo 53.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 2.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 49.1%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.6%22nd of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–18 | Road vs home | 19–1614th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–31 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 22–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–37 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.