Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Gage GoncalvesGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Gage GoncalvesPoints1
Hurricanes- Sean WalkerGoals1
- Jalen ChatfieldAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:26Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (21)1–4
- P34:38Gage Goncalves Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (41), Darren Raddysh (25)1–3
- P219:15Jack Roslovic Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (18), Jalen Chatfield (10)0–3
- P212:56Jordan Martinook Goal (12) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P14:29Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (38)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:29Seth Jarvis Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (38)TB 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 53% → 68% +15CAR 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P212:56Jordan Martinook Goal (12) Backhand, assists: noneTB 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 73% → 87% +15CAR 73% → 87%+15 pts
- P219:15Jack Roslovic Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (18), Jalen Chatfield (10)TB 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 90% → 97% +7CAR 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P34:38Gage Goncalves Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (41), Darren Raddysh (25)TB 1 – 3 CAR · TB 1% → 7% +6TB 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P36:26Sean Walker Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Staal (21)TB 1 – 4 CAR · CAR 94% → >99% +5CAR 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 53%
- ML TB +105 / CAR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CAR: Elo 53.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CAR -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.7 – 2.8 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +27 Elo | CAR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 25–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–29 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–36 | 26–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 CAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.