Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- JJ MoserAssists1
- Cam AtkinsonPoints1
Flyers- Bobby BrinkGoals2
- Olle LycksellAssists2
- Bobby BrinkPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Owen Tippett Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Brayden Point Goal Snap Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matvei Michkov Goal Snap Shot1–2
- P33:50Cam Atkinson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (40), J.J. Moser (9)3–3
- P219:01Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (3), Bobby Brink (22)2–3
- P210:55Bobby Brink Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (22)2–2
- P20:15Zemgus Girgensons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (15), Brandon Hagel (42)2–1
- P114:20Bobby Brink Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (2), Ryan Poehling (12)1–1
- P18:29Gage Goncalves Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Yanni Gourde (13), Ryan McDonagh (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:20Bobby Brink Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (2), Ryan Poehling (12)TB 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 27% → 43% +15PHI 27% → 43%+15 pts
- P20:15Zemgus Girgensons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Cernak (15), Brandon Hagel (42)TB 2 – 1 PHI · TB 57% → 73% +16TB 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P210:55Bobby Brink Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Sean Couturier (22)TB 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 25% → 44% +19PHI 25% → 44%+19 pts
- P219:01Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (3), Bobby Brink (22)TB 2 – 3 PHI · PHI 45% → 69% +24PHI 45% → 69%+24 pts
- P33:50Cam Atkinson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (40), J.J. Moser (9)TB 3 – 3 PHI · TB 28% → 54% +27TB 28% → 54%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML TB -155 / PHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 56.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +3 | TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.53 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +43 Elo | TB 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%32nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 17th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 15–1927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 34–30 | 31–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–37 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.