Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Darnell NurseGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Josh NorrisAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P33:20Tage Thompson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Norris (14)2–3
- P29:12Evan Bouchard Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Leon Draisaitl (51)2–2
- P23:52Alex Tuch Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (20)1–2
- P21:35Darnell Nurse Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (4), Leon Draisaitl (50)1–1
- P113:28Tage Thompson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:28Tage Thompson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 38% → 55% +16BUF 38% → 55%+16 pts
- P21:35Darnell Nurse Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Stecher (4), Leon Draisaitl (50)EDM 1 – 1 BUF · EDM 42% → 60% +18EDM 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P23:52Alex Tuch Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (20)EDM 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 40% → 58% +19BUF 40% → 58%+19 pts
- P29:12Evan Bouchard Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (58), Leon Draisaitl (51)EDM 2 – 2 BUF · EDM 39% → 59% +20EDM 39% → 59%+20 pts
- P33:20Tage Thompson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Joshua Norris (14)EDM 2 – 3 BUF · BUF 43% → 70% +27BUF 43% → 70%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML EDM -190 / BUF +160
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 58.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -170
- BUF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +56 Elo | EDM 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.9% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217–13 | Road vs home | 15–1620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–41 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.