Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Tanner PearsonAssists1
- Brett HowdenPoints1
Sabres- Jason ZuckerGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists2
- Bowen ByramPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Alex Tuch Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Jack Quinn Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Victor Olofsson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P319:46Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (25), Tage Thompson (25)3–3
- P317:27Jack Eichel Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (41), Alex Pietrangelo (24)3–2
- P39:53Jason Zucker Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P212:13Ryan McLeod Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (7), Bowen Byram (24)2–1
- P212:06Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Tomas Hertl (28)2–0
- P112:07Brett Howden Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tanner Pearson (13), Ivan Barbashev (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:07Brett Howden Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tanner Pearson (13), Ivan Barbashev (23)VGK 1 – 0 BUF · VGK 62% → 76% +14VGK 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P212:13Ryan McLeod Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bryson (7), Bowen Byram (24)VGK 2 – 1 BUF · BUF 10% → 22% +12BUF 10% → 22%+12 pts
- P39:53Jason Zucker Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 15% → 44% +29BUF 15% → 44%+29 pts
- P317:27Jack Eichel Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (41), Alex Pietrangelo (24)VGK 3 – 2 BUF · VGK 53% → 97% +44VGK 53% → 97%+44 pts
- P319:46Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (25), Tage Thompson (25)VGK 3 – 3 BUF · BUF <1% → 49% +49BUF <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML VGK -195 / BUF +165
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 58.3%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -175
- BUF +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.6 – 2.9 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −6 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +58 Elo | VGK 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 48.8%22nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 88.9%31st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 13th of 3215–16 | Road vs home | 16–1618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–28 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–26 | 5–16 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–2 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.