Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists3
- Patrick KanePoints5
Scoring summary
- P314:31Moritz Seider Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (32), Lucas Raymond (46)3–7
- P35:39Marco Kasper Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (27), Patrick Kane (28)3–6
- P31:36Patrick Kane Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (26), Lucas Raymond (45)3–5
- P218:12Zach Benson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (26), Ryan McLeod (21)3–4
- P210:54Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (31)2–4
- P119:25Joshua Norris Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Benson (13), Tage Thompson (24)2–3
- P119:07Patrick Kane Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (25), Dylan Larkin (30)1–3
- P115:40Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (27), Marco Kasper (14)1–2
- P112:36Marco Kasper Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (18), Patrick Kane (26)1–1
- P17:38Tage Thompson Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:38Tage Thompson Goal (34) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (23)BUF 1 – 0 DET · BUF 43% → 58% +15BUF 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P112:36Marco Kasper Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Simon Edvinsson (18), Patrick Kane (26)BUF 1 – 1 DET · DET 41% → 57% +16DET 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P115:40Alex DeBrincat Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (27), Marco Kasper (14)BUF 1 – 2 DET · DET 57% → 72% +16DET 57% → 72%+16 pts
- P218:12Zach Benson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (26), Ryan McLeod (21)BUF 3 – 4 DET · BUF 9% → 23% +14BUF 9% → 23%+14 pts
- P31:36Patrick Kane Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (26), Lucas Raymond (45)BUF 3 – 5 DET · DET 78% → 92% +14DET 78% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 58%
- ML BUF +130 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- DET: Elo 55.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −18 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.46 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +39 Elo | DET 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.223rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 48.7%24th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 29th of 329–20 | Road vs home | 16–1823rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–32 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 33–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–26 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–5 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.