Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists2
- Brandon SaadPoints2
Blue JacketsScoring summary
- P315:38Alex Pietrangelo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (14), Brayden McNabb (12)4–0
- P212:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (27), Brandon Saad (12)3–0
- P119:01Brandon Saad Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Reilly Smith (21), Nicolas Roy (15)2–0
- P112:00Nicolas Roy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (59), Tomas Hertl (26)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:00Nicolas Roy Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (59), Tomas Hertl (26)VGK 1 – 0 CBJ · VGK 61% → 75% +14VGK 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P119:01Brandon Saad Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Reilly Smith (21), Nicolas Roy (15)VGK 2 – 0 CBJ · VGK 76% → 87% +12VGK 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P212:17Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (27), Brandon Saad (12)VGK 3 – 0 CBJ · VGK 90% → 97% +6VGK 90% → 97%+6 pts
- P315:38Alex Pietrangelo Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (14), Brayden McNabb (12)VGK 4 – 0 CBJ · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 62%
- ML VGK -185 / CBJ +155
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 52.6%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -166
- CBJ +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +18 Elo | VGK 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.8% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 14th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 20–107th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–28 | 39–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 26–26 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 34–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–34 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–2 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.