Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals2
- Denton MateychukAssists1
- Mathieu OlivierPoints2
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Cody GlassAssists2
- Luke HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:29Mathieu Olivier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (9)3–5
- P30:26Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (13), Jesper Bratt (55)2–5
- P216:49Timo Meier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (15), Brian Dumoulin (15)2–4
- P27:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (21), Zach Werenski (49)2–3
- P23:30Mathieu Olivier Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Denton Mateychuk (3), Kent Johnson (24)1–3
- P118:51Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (12)0–3
- P110:49Paul Cotter Goal (14) Backhand, assists: none0–2
- P16:37Nico Hischier Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (54), Luke Hughes (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:37Nico Hischier Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: Jesper Bratt (54), Luke Hughes (25)CBJ 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 59% → 73% +14NJ 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P110:49Paul Cotter Goal (14) Backhand, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 74% → 85% +11NJ 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P118:51Jesper Bratt Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Glass (12)CBJ 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 86% → 94% +8NJ 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P27:16Kirill Marchenko Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Adam Fantilli (21), Zach Werenski (49)CBJ 2 – 3 NJ · CBJ 12% → 25% +13CBJ 12% → 25%+13 pts
- P216:49Timo Meier Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (15), Brian Dumoulin (15)CBJ 2 – 4 NJ · NJ 77% → 91% +14NJ 77% → 91%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 60%
- ML CBJ +140 / NJ -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 59.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NJ -149
- CBJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.5 – 3.0 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +13 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +65 Elo | NJ 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 32 |
| 27th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 27th of 3211–22 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–24 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 22–32 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 37–26 | 23–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–3 NJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.