Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Ryan McLeodPoints1
Utah HC- Mikhail SergachevGoals2
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Mikhail SergachevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:41Mikhail Sergachev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Karel Vejmelka (1)2–5
- P318:50Kevin Stenlund Goal (11) , assists: none2–4
- P314:13Dylan Guenther Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (22), Michael Carcone (12)2–3
- P31:32Ryan McLeod Goal (16) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P211:50Mikhail Sergachev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (9)1–2
- P119:49JJ Peterka Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (27), Tage Thompson (26)1–1
- P117:27Logan Cooley Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (38), Clayton Keller (52)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:27Logan Cooley Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (38), Clayton Keller (52)BUF 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 61% → 76% +15UTAH 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P119:49JJ Peterka Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (27), Tage Thompson (26)BUF 1 – 1 UTAH · BUF 24% → 39% +16BUF 24% → 39%+16 pts
- P211:50Mikhail Sergachev Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack McBain (9)BUF 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 59% → 78% +19UTAH 59% → 78%+19 pts
- P31:32Ryan McLeod Goal (16) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 2 – 2 UTAH · BUF 20% → 43% +23BUF 20% → 43%+23 pts
- P314:13Dylan Guenther Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (22), Michael Carcone (12)BUF 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 54% → 90% +36UTAH 54% → 90%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 63%
- ML BUF +160 / UTAH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- UTAH: Elo 58.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -170
- BUF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.6 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +57 Elo | UTAH 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 64.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 25th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–21 | Road vs home | 13–2030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–33 | 30–38 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 9–24 |
| Underdog | 28–17 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 39–27 | 29–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.