Utah Hockey Club at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Kevin StenlundGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Nick SchmaltzPoints2
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:29Clayton Keller Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (37)3–1
- P35:08Logan Cooley Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (4), Nick Schmaltz (36)2–1
- P212:04Kevin Stenlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (11), Michael Carcone (10)1–1
- P22:37Quinn Hughes Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (27), Jake DeBrusk (15)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:37Quinn Hughes Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (27), Jake DeBrusk (15)UTAH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 44% → 63% +18VAN 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P212:04Kevin Stenlund Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (11), Michael Carcone (10)UTAH 1 – 1 VAN · UTAH 34% → 55% +21UTAH 34% → 55%+21 pts
- P35:08Logan Cooley Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (4), Nick Schmaltz (36)UTAH 2 – 1 VAN · UTAH 54% → 79% +26UTAH 54% → 79%+26 pts
- P319:29Clayton Keller Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (37)UTAH 3 – 1 VAN · UTAH >99% → >99% +0UTAH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 57%
- ML UTAH -145 / VAN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 47.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -133
- VAN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +18 Elo | VAN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.020th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 48.7%25th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.5%26th of 32 |
| 11th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 13th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 14–1929th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–37 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–24 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–38 | 31–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.