Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Andrew MangiapaneGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:28Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (13), Adam Lowry (16)2–3
- P316:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (35), Trevor van Riemsdyk (19)2–2
- P219:48Mason Appleton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (18), Cole Perfetti (30)1–2
- P119:20Andrew Mangiapane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (26)1–1
- P16:50Josh Morrissey Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (43), Dylan DeMelo (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:50Josh Morrissey Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (43), Dylan DeMelo (15)WSH 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 58% → 72% +14WPG 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P119:20Andrew Mangiapane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (26)WSH 1 – 1 WPG · WSH 27% → 43% +16WSH 27% → 43%+16 pts
- P219:48Mason Appleton Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (18), Cole Perfetti (30)WSH 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 55% → 77% +23WPG 55% → 77%+23 pts
- P316:00Alex Ovechkin Goal (36) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (35), Trevor van Riemsdyk (19)WSH 2 – 2 WPG · WSH 7% → 48% +41WSH 7% → 48%+41 pts
- OT1:28Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (13), Adam Lowry (16)WSH 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 52% → 94% +42WPG 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 58%
- ML WSH +130 / WPG -150
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 57.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -138
- WSH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.5 – 3.0 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +8 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +50 Elo | WPG 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 63.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.9%9th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 1st of 3223–10 | Road vs home | 25–105th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–27 | 36–35 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 26–28 |
| Underdog | 23–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–35 | 34–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.