Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Brandon TanevGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Brandon TanevPoints1
Oilers- Jeff SkinnerGoals2
- Darnell NurseAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:13Kyle Connor Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (41), Josh Morrissey (43)4–3
- P314:26Zach Hyman Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (21), Jake Walman (29)3–3
- P33:56Brandon Tanev Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (13), Haydn Fleury (7)3–2
- P27:41Josh Morrissey Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Nino Niederreiter (17), Morgan Barron (5)2–2
- P25:30Jeff Skinner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (64), Darnell Nurse (20)1–2
- P113:39Cole Perfetti Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (12), Nikolaj Ehlers (37)1–1
- P15:28Jeff Skinner Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:30Jeff Skinner Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (64), Darnell Nurse (20)WPG 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 48% → 67% +19EDM 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P27:41Josh Morrissey Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Nino Niederreiter (17), Morgan Barron (5)WPG 2 – 2 EDM · WPG 32% → 52% +19WPG 32% → 52%+19 pts
- P33:56Brandon Tanev Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (13), Haydn Fleury (7)WPG 3 – 2 EDM · WPG 51% → 77% +26WPG 51% → 77%+26 pts
- P314:26Zach Hyman Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (21), Jake Walman (29)WPG 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 11% → 49% +38EDM 11% → 49%+38 pts
- OT1:13Kyle Connor Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (41), Josh Morrissey (43)WPG 4 – 3 EDM · WPG 51% → 93% +42WPG 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / EDM +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- WPG: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- EDM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −2 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +1 Elo | EDM 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 54.2%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 89.8%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3222–13 | Road vs home | 21–1311th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–33 | 24–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–26 | 18–42 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 30–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–2 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.