Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (49) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (61), Calvin Pickard (1)2–1
- P31:21
Bo Horvat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1 - P28:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (48) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (16), Evan Bouchard (40)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (48) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (16), Evan Bouchard (40)EDM 1 – 0 NYI · EDM 53% → 72% +19EDM 53% → 72%+19 pts
- P31:21Bo Horvat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 24% → 48% +24NYI 24% → 48%+24 pts
- OT3:53Leon Draisaitl Goal (49) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (61), Calvin Pickard (1)EDM 2 – 1 NYI · EDM 51% → >99% +49EDM 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / NYI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 50.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- NYI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +6 Elo | EDM 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217–15 | Road vs home | 15–1518th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–43 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–41 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 22–11 |
| Overs–unders | 29–36 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.