Edmonton Oilers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Jake WalmanAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Devils- Brett PesceGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists1
- Brett PescePoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:25Simon Nemec Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (57), Nico Hischier (24)2–3
- P36:50Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (11), Timo Meier (25)2–2
- P34:18Evan Bouchard Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (28), Connor McDavid (60)2–1
- P210:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (59), Brett Kulak (15)1–1
- P23:58Brett Pesce Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (8), Jesper Bratt (56)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:58Brett Pesce Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Haula (8), Jesper Bratt (56)EDM 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 46% → 64% +18NJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P210:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (47) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (59), Brett Kulak (15)EDM 1 – 1 NJ · EDM 34% → 54% +20EDM 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P34:18Evan Bouchard Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Walman (28), Connor McDavid (60)EDM 2 – 1 NJ · EDM 53% → 78% +26EDM 53% → 78%+26 pts
- P36:50Jesper Bratt Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (11), Timo Meier (25)EDM 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 20% → 48% +28NJ 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P38:25Simon Nemec Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (57), Nico Hischier (24)EDM 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 48% → 78% +30NJ 48% → 78%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 55%
- ML EDM -135 / NJ +115
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 51.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 2.6 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −12 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +10 Elo | EDM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.0% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%5th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 7th of 3217–14 | Road vs home | 15–1517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–42 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–40 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 24–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.