Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists3
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints3
Rangers- Will CuylleGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Will CuyllePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:35Connor McDavid Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26), Brett Kulak (16)3–1
- P36:09Viktor Arvidsson Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25)2–1
- P25:00Will Cuylle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (43), Vincent Trocheck (26)1–1
- P119:17Corey Perry Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Leon Draisaitl (52)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:17Corey Perry Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (24), Leon Draisaitl (52)EDM 1 – 0 NYR · EDM 57% → 73% +16EDM 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P25:00Will Cuylle Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (43), Vincent Trocheck (26)EDM 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 26% → 44% +18NYR 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P36:09Viktor Arvidsson Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (25)EDM 2 – 1 NYR · EDM 54% → 80% +27EDM 54% → 80%+27 pts
- P316:35Connor McDavid Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (26), Brett Kulak (16)EDM 3 – 1 NYR · EDM 94% → >99% +6EDM 94% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML EDM -150 / NYR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- NYR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +16 Elo | EDM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 16–1722nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–44 | 28–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–42 | 17–30 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–37 | 30–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.