New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Blue JacketsScoring summary
- P316:41Vincent Trocheck Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (37), Adam Fox (44)4–0
- P314:38Vincent Trocheck Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (42), Will Cuylle (19)3–0
- P211:36Artemi Panarin Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Will Borgen (7)2–0
- P11:43Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (34)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:43Alexis Lafrenière Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Mika Zibanejad (34)NYR 1 – 0 CBJ · NYR 56% → 70% +14NYR 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P211:36Artemi Panarin Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (23), Will Borgen (7)NYR 2 – 0 CBJ · NYR 74% → 88% +14NYR 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P314:38Vincent Trocheck Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (42), Will Cuylle (19)NYR 3 – 0 CBJ · NYR >99% → >99% +1NYR >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P316:41Vincent Trocheck Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (37), Adam Fox (44)NYR 4 – 0 CBJ · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 56%
- ML NYR -140 / CBJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 51.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +9 Elo | NYR 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.1% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 11th of 3216–17 | Road vs home | 20–118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–39 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 34–21 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 4–3 CBJ in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.