Winnipeg Jets at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals1
- Luke SchennAssists1
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints1
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:56Pius Suter Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–6
- P214:43Pius Suter Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Kiefer Sherwood (14), Jake DeBrusk (16)2–5
- P213:57Brock Boeser Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (19), Nils Hoglander (14)2–4
- P27:07Alex Iafallo Goal (11) Poke, assists: Brandon Tanev (10), Luke Schenn (5)2–3
- P119:57Nils Hoglander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (21), Elias Pettersson (28)1–3
- P118:29Brock Boeser Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (49), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (2)1–2
- P114:50Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (23)1–1
- P14:55Drew O'Connor Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (48), Teddy Blueger (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:50Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (23)WPG 1 – 1 VAN · WPG 42% → 59% +17WPG 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P118:29Brock Boeser Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Quinn Hughes (49), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (2)WPG 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 42% → 59% +17VAN 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P119:57Nils Hoglander Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (21), Elias Pettersson (28)WPG 1 – 3 VAN · VAN 60% → 75% +16VAN 60% → 75%+16 pts
- P27:07Alex Iafallo Goal (11) Poke, assists: Brandon Tanev (10), Luke Schenn (5)WPG 2 – 3 VAN · WPG 21% → 38% +17WPG 21% → 38%+17 pts
- P213:57Brock Boeser Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (19), Nils Hoglander (14)WPG 2 – 4 VAN · VAN 65% → 83% +18VAN 65% → 83%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 60%
- ML WPG -165 / VAN +140
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 60.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- WPG -149
- VAN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | 0 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +71 Elo | WPG 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.020th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 48.7%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3222–12 | Road vs home | 14–2029th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–32 | 29–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–37 | 31–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.