Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Seth JonesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Tom WilsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P25:57Andrew Mangiapane Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (24), Martin Fehervary (18)3–6
- P20:59Dylan Strome Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Alex Ovechkin (23), Aliaksei Protas (34)3–5
- P20:07Tom Wilson Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (21), Martin Fehervary (17)3–4
- P115:27Jonah Gadjovich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (7)3–3
- P114:56Anthony Beauvillier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (23), Trevor van Riemsdyk (18)2–3
- P113:56Seth Jones Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (24), Evan Rodrigues (14)2–2
- P112:24John Carlson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (29), Pierre-Luc Dubois (43)1–2
- P16:35Sam Bennett Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mackie Samoskevich (13), Gustav Forsling (15)1–1
- P13:15Connor McMichael Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:24John Carlson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (29), Pierre-Luc Dubois (43)FLA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 50% → 66% +16WSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P113:56Seth Jones Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (24), Evan Rodrigues (14)FLA 2 – 2 WSH · FLA 34% → 50% +16FLA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P114:56Anthony Beauvillier Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (23), Trevor van Riemsdyk (18)FLA 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 50% → 66% +16WSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P115:27Jonah Gadjovich Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (7)FLA 3 – 3 WSH · FLA 34% → 50% +16FLA 34% → 50%+16 pts
- P20:07Tom Wilson Goal (31) Backhand, assists: Matt Roy (21), Martin Fehervary (17)FLA 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 50% → 67% +17WSH 50% → 67%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML FLA -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 59.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- FLA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −25 | +7 | FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.63 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +63 Elo | WSH 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 50.3%15th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%4th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 5th of 3219–15 | Road vs home | 23–138th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–36 | 42–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 20–20 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–37 | 34–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.