Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Sharks- Macklin CelebriniGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Macklin CelebriniPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:54Alex Ovechkin Goal (34) Tip-In, assists: Martin Fehervary (15), Pierre-Luc Dubois (42)5–1
- P36:59Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (11), Andrew Mangiapane (12)4–1
- P36:19Macklin Celebrini Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (20)3–1
- P118:55Taylor Raddysh Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (40), Pierre-Luc Dubois (41)3–0
- P117:26Aliaksei Protas Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (10), Tom Wilson (27)2–0
- P17:33Dylan Strome Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (21), Tom Wilson (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:33Dylan Strome Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (21), Tom Wilson (26)WSH 1 – 0 SJ · WSH 67% → 80% +13WSH 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P117:26Aliaksei Protas Goal (29) Backhand, assists: Lars Eller (10), Tom Wilson (27)WSH 2 – 0 SJ · WSH 80% → 90% +10WSH 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P118:55Taylor Raddysh Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (40), Pierre-Luc Dubois (41)WSH 3 – 0 SJ · WSH 90% → 96% +6WSH 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P36:19Macklin Celebrini Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (20)WSH 3 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 4% +3SJ <1% → 4%+3 pts
- P36:59Trevor van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (11), Andrew Mangiapane (12)WSH 4 – 1 SJ · WSH 96% → >99% +3WSH 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 68%
- ML WSH -240 / SJ +200
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 70.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -212
- SJ +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 2.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −3 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +151 Elo | WSH 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 46.3%30th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.0%30th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 1st of 3222–10 | Road vs home | 10–2232nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–26 | 41–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 22–7 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 32–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.