Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors CBJ.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Seth JonesAssists1
- Seth JonesPoints1
Blue JacketsScoring summary
- OT0:29Aleksander Barkov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (22), Sam Reinhart (40)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT0:29Aleksander Barkov Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (22), Sam Reinhart (40)FLA 1 – 0 CBJ · FLA 54% → 92% +39FLA 54% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 63%
- ML FLA -190 / CBJ +160
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -170
- CBJ +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +63 Elo | FLA 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.3% | Shot share | 49.2%20th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3218–15 | Road vs home | 20–1313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–35 | 40–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–32 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–36 | 38–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–0 CBJ in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.