New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Brian DumoulinAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals1
- Justin DanforthAssists1
- Mathieu OlivierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:24Mathieu Olivier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (9), Zach Aston-Reese (11)2–1
- P214:14Jesper Bratt Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (16), Cody Glass (14)2–0
- P213:35Timo Meier Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Stefan Noesen (16), Nico Hischier (25)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:35Timo Meier Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Stefan Noesen (16), Nico Hischier (25)NJ 1 – 0 CBJ · NJ 53% → 73% +20NJ 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P214:14Jesper Bratt Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (16), Cody Glass (14)NJ 2 – 0 CBJ · NJ 73% → 88% +15NJ 73% → 88%+15 pts
- P313:24Mathieu Olivier Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (9), Zach Aston-Reese (11)NJ 2 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 1% → 13% +12CBJ 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 54%
- ML NJ -130 / CBJ +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -119
- CBJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +8 Elo | CBJ 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.327th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.8%23rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3218–17 | Road vs home | 20–1210th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–39 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–33 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 25–43 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–2 CBJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.