New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Cody GlassGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Luke HughesPoints2
Penguins- Connor DewarGoals2
- Conor TimminsAssists2
- Connor DewarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Kevin Hayes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Emil Bemstrom (1)3–7
- P319:05Connor Dewar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (8)3–6
- P314:17Erik Karlsson Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (31), Kris Letang (19)3–5
- P36:40Nico Hischier Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (27), Jesper Bratt (60)3–4
- P35:40Timo Meier Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (59), Simon Nemec (2)2–4
- P32:22Philip Tomasino Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P24:24Rickard Rakell Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (50), Conor Timmins (8)1–3
- P117:36Danton Heinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (10), Vladislav Kolyachonok (4)1–2
- P117:11Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (6), Conor Timmins (7)1–1
- P110:08Cody Glass Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (58), Luke Hughes (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:08Cody Glass Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (58), Luke Hughes (26)NJ 1 – 0 PIT · NJ 55% → 70% +15NJ 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P117:11Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (6), Conor Timmins (7)NJ 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 29% → 46% +16PIT 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P117:36Danton Heinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Philip Tomasino (10), Vladislav Kolyachonok (4)NJ 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 46% → 63% +17PIT 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P24:24Rickard Rakell Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (50), Conor Timmins (8)NJ 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 65% → 80% +16PIT 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P36:40Nico Hischier Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (27), Jesper Bratt (60)NJ 3 – 4 PIT · NJ 7% → 24% +17NJ 7% → 24%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NJ: Elo 54.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +33 Elo | NJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.921st of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.830th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.1% | Shot share | 48.4%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 9th of 3218–16 | Road vs home | 16–1825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–38 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–32 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders | 24–43 | 35–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–1 PIT in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.