Florida Panthers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Islanders- Marc GatcombGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists2
- Tony DeAngeloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:53Simon Holmstrom Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (23)2–4
- P312:33Noah Dobson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (21)2–3
- P312:16Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (1), Anthony DeAngelo (8)2–2
- P36:29Marc Gatcomb Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (7), Pierre Engvall (5)2–1
- P24:48Aleksander Barkov Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Sam Reinhart (39), Eetu Luostarinen (13)2–0
- P21:00Sam Reinhart Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (44), Gustav Forsling (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:00Sam Reinhart Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (44), Gustav Forsling (14)FLA 1 – 0 NYI · FLA 58% → 74% +16FLA 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P24:48Aleksander Barkov Goal (18) Deflected, assists: Sam Reinhart (39), Eetu Luostarinen (13)FLA 2 – 0 NYI · FLA 75% → 87% +13FLA 75% → 87%+13 pts
- P36:29Marc Gatcomb Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (7), Pierre Engvall (5)FLA 2 – 1 NYI · NYI 5% → 19% +14NYI 5% → 19%+14 pts
- P312:16Maxim Tsyplakov Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Reilly (1), Anthony DeAngelo (8)FLA 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 13% → 46% +33NYI 13% → 46%+33 pts
- P312:33Noah Dobson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (21)FLA 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 46% → 83% +36NYI 46% → 83%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 60%
- ML FLA -165 / NYI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- FLA: Elo 50.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- FLA -149
- NYI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −26 | −2 | FLA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.65 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +4 Elo | FLA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.5% | Shot share | 50.2%16th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–14 | Road vs home | 15–1623rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–34 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–31 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–36 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 NYI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.