Florida Panthers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints1
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:11Christian Dvorak Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Savard (12)1–3
- P23:51Mackie Samoskevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (29), Sam Bennett (23)1–2
- P115:56Cole Caufield Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (27)0–2
- P15:15Patrik Laine Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (48), Cole Caufield (28)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:15Patrik Laine Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (48), Cole Caufield (28)FLA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 35% → 50% +15MTL 35% → 50%+15 pts
- P115:56Cole Caufield Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (27)FLA 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 53% → 69% +16MTL 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P23:51Mackie Samoskevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (29), Sam Bennett (23)FLA 1 – 2 MTL · FLA 27% → 44% +17FLA 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P38:11Christian Dvorak Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: David Savard (12)FLA 1 – 3 MTL · MTL 74% → 93% +19MTL 74% → 93%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 66%
- ML FLA -215 / MTL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- FLA: Elo 61.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- FLA -191
- MTL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 2.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +78 Elo | FLA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 63.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3254.4% | Shot share | 47.2%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218–13 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–33 | 37–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 1–7 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 36–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 35–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–2 MTL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.