Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints2
Capitals- Andrew MangiapaneGoals1
- Anthony BeauvillierAssists2
- Anthony BeauvillierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:24Sean Couturier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (13), Owen Tippett (18)2–3
- P35:10Ryan Poehling Goal (6) , assists: none1–3
- P211:06Andrew Mangiapane Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (9)0–3
- P21:56Brandon Duhaime Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (20), Anthony Beauvillier (8)0–2
- P114:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (33), Trevor van Riemsdyk (17)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (33), Trevor van Riemsdyk (17)PHI 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 65% → 79% +14WSH 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P21:56Brandon Duhaime Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (20), Anthony Beauvillier (8)PHI 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 79% → 90% +11WSH 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P211:06Andrew Mangiapane Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (9)PHI 0 – 3 WSH · WSH 91% → 97% +6WSH 91% → 97%+6 pts
- P35:10Ryan Poehling Goal (6) , assists: nonePHI 1 – 3 WSH · PHI <1% → 5% +4PHI <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P317:24Sean Couturier Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (13), Owen Tippett (18)PHI 2 – 3 WSH · PHI <1% → 3% +3PHI <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 67%
- ML PHI +195 / WSH -230
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 69.3%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -206
- PHI +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −10 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +141 Elo | WSH 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 66.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 24th of 3212–21 | Road vs home | 22–1310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 32–37 | 42–26 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 25–24 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–35 | 34–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–5 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.