Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Mark JankowskiGoals2
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Mark JankowskiPoints2
FlyersScoring summary
- P319:28Scott Morrow Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (21), Taylor Hall (19)5–0
- P213:15Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (30)4–0
- P20:19Taylor Hall Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (39), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)3–0
- P115:46Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (15), Tyson Jost (1)2–0
- P18:21Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (12), Seth Jarvis (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:21Sebastian Aho Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (12), Seth Jarvis (25)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 60% → 74% +14CAR 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P115:46Mark Jankowski Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (15), Tyson Jost (1)CAR 2 – 0 PHI · CAR 74% → 86% +12CAR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P20:19Taylor Hall Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (39), Shayne Gostisbehere (29)CAR 3 – 0 PHI · CAR 87% → 94% +7CAR 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P213:15Mark Jankowski Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (16), Shayne Gostisbehere (30)CAR 4 – 0 PHI · CAR 97% → >99% +3CAR 97% → >99%+3 pts
- P319:28Scott Morrow Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (21), Taylor Hall (19)CAR 5 – 0 PHI · CAR 100% → 100% +0CAR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML CAR -170 / PHI +145
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 55.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -154
- PHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +41 Elo | CAR 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.528th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.9% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 88.3%32nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 19th of 3213–18 | Road vs home | 16–1927th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–36 | 32–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–34 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–39 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–1 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.