Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Tyler MotteAssists1
- Alex DeBrincatPoints1
Hurricanes- Jack RoslovicGoals1
- Jesperi KotkaniemiAssists2
- Jack RoslovicPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:49Eric Robinson Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Brent Burns (18)2–4
- P32:53Michael Rasmussen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (4)2–3
- P212:18Jalen Chatfield Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (10), Seth Jarvis (24)1–3
- P25:44Jack Roslovic Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (19), Scott Morrow (2)1–2
- P20:22Taylor Hall Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (18), Jack Roslovic (12)1–1
- P118:07Alex DeBrincat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:07Alex DeBrincat Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (7)DET 1 – 0 CAR · DET 34% → 51% +17DET 34% → 51%+17 pts
- P20:22Taylor Hall Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (18), Jack Roslovic (12)DET 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 48% → 66% +17CAR 48% → 66%+17 pts
- P25:44Jack Roslovic Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (19), Scott Morrow (2)DET 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 65% → 81% +16CAR 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P212:18Jalen Chatfield Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (10), Seth Jarvis (24)DET 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 81% → 92% +11CAR 81% → 92%+11 pts
- P32:53Michael Rasmussen Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Motte (4)DET 2 – 3 CAR · DET 5% → 17% +12DET 5% → 17%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 69%
- ML DET +210 / CAR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- CAR: Elo 66.9%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CAR -224
- DET +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.2 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +4 | DET: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +122 Elo | CAR 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 74.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.57th of 32 |
| 26th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 55.9%1st of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.9%18th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 15th of 3214–16 | Road vs home | 26–82nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 39–26 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 26–34 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–32 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 CAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.