Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Ben ChiarotPoints1
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Dylan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:27Connor McMichael Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (22), Dylan Strome (45)1–4
- P314:21Tom Wilson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (32), Martin Fehervary (16)1–3
- P38:16Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (31), Jakob Chychrun (25)1–2
- P112:28Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (8)1–1
- P16:36Dylan Strome Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (41), Rasmus Sandin (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:36Dylan Strome Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (41), Rasmus Sandin (22)DET 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 60% → 74% +14WSH 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P112:28Dylan Larkin Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (8)DET 1 – 1 WSH · DET 26% → 40% +15DET 26% → 40%+15 pts
- P38:16Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (31), Jakob Chychrun (25)DET 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 55% → 83% +28WSH 55% → 83%+28 pts
- P314:21Tom Wilson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (32), Martin Fehervary (16)DET 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 90% → >99% +9WSH 90% → >99%+9 pts
- P315:27Connor McMichael Goal (24) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (22), Dylan Strome (45)DET 1 – 4 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 61%
- ML DET +145 / WSH -170
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- WSH: Elo 66.2%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +5 | DET: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +117 Elo | WSH 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.9% | Shot share | 50.5%13th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 18th of 3214–17 | Road vs home | 21–1310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 40–27 | 41–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 19–19 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 22–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–33 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.