Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Red Wings- Albert JohanssonGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Albert JohanssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:14Marco Kasper Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (16), Patrick Kane (29)0–3
- P34:51Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (6)0–2
- P27:58Albert Johansson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (18), J.T. Compher (19)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:58Albert Johansson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (18), J.T. Compher (19)VGK 0 – 1 DET · DET 48% → 67% +19DET 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P34:51Lucas Raymond Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (6)VGK 0 – 2 DET · DET 75% → 92% +17DET 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P311:14Marco Kasper Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (16), Patrick Kane (29)VGK 0 – 3 DET · DET 97% → >99% +3DET 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 53%
- ML VGK -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- VGK -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −15 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DET: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +4 Elo | DET 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 48.7%25th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 14th of 3215–17 | Road vs home | 17–1820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 37–29 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–27 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 33–15 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35 | 34–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.