Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists3
- Ryan McLeodPoints4
Jets- Colin MillerGoals1
- Logan StanleyAssists2
- Logan StanleyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:13Ryan McLeod Goal (17) Backhand, assists: none5–3
- P316:32Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (23) Slap Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (11), Dylan DeMelo (14)4–3
- P313:21Alex Tuch Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (25), Connor Clifton (10)4–2
- P37:41Colin Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (42), Logan Stanley (10)3–2
- P37:13Tyson Kozak Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (7)3–1
- P218:46Rasmus Dahlin Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (5), Ryan McLeod (24)2–1
- P22:05Nino Niederreiter Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (29), Vladislav Namestnikov (24)1–1
- P19:15JJ Peterka Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (4), Ryan McLeod (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:05Nino Niederreiter Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (29), Vladislav Namestnikov (24)BUF 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 51% → 68% +18WPG 51% → 68%+18 pts
- P218:46Rasmus Dahlin Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jacob Bernard-Docker (5), Ryan McLeod (24)BUF 2 – 1 WPG · BUF 36% → 60% +24BUF 36% → 60%+24 pts
- P37:13Tyson Kozak Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (7)BUF 3 – 1 WPG · BUF 70% → 90% +21BUF 70% → 90%+21 pts
- P37:41Colin Miller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (42), Logan Stanley (10)BUF 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 9% → 30% +21WPG 9% → 30%+21 pts
- P313:21Alex Tuch Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (25), Connor Clifton (10)BUF 4 – 2 WPG · BUF 82% → 98% +16BUF 82% → 98%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 72%
- ML BUF +250 / WPG -300
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- WPG: Elo 74.0%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- WPG -263
- BUF +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.6 – 3.9 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −16 | BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +181 Elo | WPG 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 29th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +1.11st of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.2% | Shot share | 50.6%10th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 29th of 3210–23 | Road vs home | 25–94th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–35 | 36–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–16 | 26–27 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 33–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–3 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.