Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Matt RoyGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Matt RoyPoints1
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals2
- Jared SpurgeonAssists1
- Frederick GaudreauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:39Frederick Gaudreau Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared Spurgeon (22)2–4
- P219:51Matt Boldy Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (33), Vincent Hinostroza (5)2–3
- P212:25Frederick Gaudreau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (38), Marcus Johansson (19)2–2
- P18:49Brandon Duhaime Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (12), Anthony Beauvillier (10)2–1
- P17:08Matt Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (20), Lars Eller (12)1–1
- P16:00Jon Merrill Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:00Jon Merrill Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Devin Shore (4)WSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 44% → 59% +15MIN 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P17:08Matt Roy Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (20), Lars Eller (12)WSH 1 – 1 MIN · WSH 40% → 56% +15WSH 40% → 56%+15 pts
- P18:49Brandon Duhaime Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (12), Anthony Beauvillier (10)WSH 2 – 1 MIN · WSH 56% → 71% +15WSH 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P212:25Frederick Gaudreau Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (38), Marcus Johansson (19)WSH 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 26% → 46% +20MIN 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P219:51Matt Boldy Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (33), Vincent Hinostroza (5)WSH 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 46% → 71% +24MIN 46% → 71%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 56%
- ML WSH -140 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 51.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -128
- MIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 2.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +7 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +13 Elo | WSH 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 47.8%28th of 32 |
| 5th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 1st of 3223–11 | Road vs home | 18–1820th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 44–27 | 36–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 17–20 |
| Underdog | 24–7 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 35–36 | 32–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.