Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:17Mason Marchment Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (32), Mikko Rantanen (46)0–3
- P215:59Matt Duchene Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (40), Jamie Benn (28)0–2
- P215:01Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (30), Roope Hintz (31)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P215:01Wyatt Johnston Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (30), Roope Hintz (31)MIN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 60% → 80% +19DAL 60% → 80%+19 pts
- P215:59Matt Duchene Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (40), Jamie Benn (28)MIN 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 80% → 92% +12DAL 80% → 92%+12 pts
- P319:17Mason Marchment Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (32), Mikko Rantanen (46)MIN 0 – 3 DAL · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML MIN +180 / DAL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.5%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -191
- MIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.3 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +96 Elo | DAL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 51.1%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3222–13 | Road vs home | 26–83rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 36–34 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 25–32 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 31–39 | 31–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.