Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Tyson FoersterAssists1
- Ryan PoehlingPoints1
Stars- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:09Thomas Harley Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (39)2–3
- P218:48Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (28), Tyson Foerster (15)2–2
- P213:03Travis Konecny Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (23), Cam York (11)1–2
- P18:59Esa Lindell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (39), Matt Duchene (44)0–2
- P16:27Thomas Harley Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (10), Sam Steel (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:27Thomas Harley Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (10), Sam Steel (16)PHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 70% → 82% +12DAL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P18:59Esa Lindell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (39), Matt Duchene (44)PHI 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 82% → 90% +9DAL 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P213:03Travis Konecny Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (23), Cam York (11)PHI 1 – 2 DAL · PHI 7% → 18% +11PHI 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P218:48Ryan Poehling Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (28), Tyson Foerster (15)PHI 2 – 2 DAL · PHI 17% → 37% +20PHI 17% → 37%+20 pts
- OT0:09Thomas Harley Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (39)PHI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 56% → 93% +36DAL 56% → 93%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 71%
- ML PHI +230 / DAL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 73.1%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -243
- PHI +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.1 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +174 Elo | DAL 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.84th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 51.2%8th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.9%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 25th of 3212–22 | Road vs home | 25–83rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 33–37 | 32–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 26–24 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 34–36 | 31–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.